Ferrari rocked the motorsports world with the announcement Thursday it has lured seven-time world driving champion Lewis Hamilton away from Mercedes to drive for the Scuderia Formula 1 team starting in the 2025 season. And that leads to a question for F1 fans and customers at legal online sports betting sites. What are the Formula 1 odds for where Carlos Sainz Jr. will go after this season?
Hamilton, who owns the all-time F1 record with 103 victories, is going to run the 2024 season with Mercedes, his team since 2013. Hamilton, who turned 39 in January, will then replace Carlos Sainz as the teammate of Charles Leclerc with the legendary Ferrari team in 2025.
Sainz was the only driver to stop the Red Bull team juggernaut in 2023. World champion Max Verstappen won a record 19 out of 22 races last season and his teammate Sergio Perez won two. Ferrari’s lone win came thanks to Sainz, at Marina Bay in Singapore. At Caesars Sportsbook, Verstappen is the overwhelming favorite in 2024 to win his fourth consecutive F1 title, with -450 odds.
So what are the Formula 1 odds for the Spaniard’s destination in 2025? Here is our take:
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Carlos Sainz Next Team Odds
Team Odds Pct. Chance
Mercedes +160 38.5%
Aston Martin +550 15.4%
Red Bull +700 12.5%
Audi +1270 7.3%
Other +280 26.3%
This chart was prepared exclusively for USBettingReport.com and won’t be found at legal sports betting apps. Sainz responded to the news that he was losing his Ferrari seat after this season with a post on X, formerly known as Twitter:
Our Formula 1 Odds Favorite For Carlos Sainz
Our favorite for what will happen in 2025 is a straight swap. Hamilton has won six of his championships with the Mercedes team but he’s leaving that seat after the 2024 season. There will be no shortage of drivers who want to replace the Englishman, even though Mercedes has won only one race over the past two seasons. Website the-race.com reported that George Russell has a contract at Mercedes through 2025 — but then, reportedly, so did Hamilton before Thursday’s announcement from Ferrari.
We rate Mercedes as a +160 favorite, or 38.5% implied probability, of taking Sainz for the 2025 season and probably beyond. DraftKings Sportsbook has Sainz listed with +2800 odds to win the F1 title in 2024 on his way out of Ferrari.
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Other F1 Teams That Could Get Sainz
Aston Martin has made steady progress in the past couple of years and, depending on reports, could have an opening. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll are returning to the driver lineup in 2024 but Alonso turns 44 in July, a very advanced age for an F1 driver. He shows little sign of slowing, but might Aston Martin still be interested in moving toward the future with Sainz, who turns 30 in September? We give this possibility a 15.4% implied improbability, or +550 odds.
One intriguing possibility is Red Bull, the all-conquering team for which Sainz drove under the Toro Rosso banner from 2015-17. Red Bull is the -330 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to repeat as constructors’ champion in 2024. Verstappen is locked in long term with the team, and why would either he or Red Bull want to end their partnership? But teammate Perez is another matter; he won twice last year but is a very firm No. 2 driver with the team. Might they perceive Sainz as an upgrade? We say it’s a +700 (or 12.5%) shot.
We list Audi because multiple reports indicate that Sainz has ties with the manufacturer. One major stumbling block, though: Audi isn’t entering the series until 2026. Would Sainz be willing to sit out a year, or take a one-year ride with an inferior team in 2025, to bide his time with them? We say it’s a longshot at +1270 odds. Any other possibility is at +280 odds, or a 26.3% chance.
The 2024 Formula 1 season starts March 2 with the Bahrain Grand Prix, where Sainz has +1600 odds at BetRivers Sportsbook to start his final season at Ferrari with a victory.
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Jim Tomlin has more than 30 years of experience in sports journalism as an editor and writer and now lends his sports and gambling expertise to US Betting Report among other websites. He has covered pro and college sports from football, baseball, basketball, soccer, golf, motorsports and more for publications such as the Tampa Bay Times, SaturdayDownSouth.com, SaturdayTradition.com and FanRag Sports.